GB’s Dartboard Box Office Predictions – Jan. 11-13

It’s been awhile since I’ve ventured back into the prediction business and after today’s Oscar nominations, I’m pretty fired up now and ready to view some good movies and see the impact it’ll have on the marketplace. That’s right people, the Dartboard Box Office Predictions are back and I’m ready to be embarrassed yet again with some misguided picks.

There are three major releases this weekend, with one of them being a wide expansion. First, we have Gangster Squad, the Josh Brolin, Ryan Gosling, and Sean Penn led period flick, then we have A Haunted House from Marlon Wayans, trying to recapture the glory days of Scary Movie, and then Zero Dark Thirty goes wide finally to take advantage of the Oscar nominations announcement. In regards to Gangster Squad, I’ve been trying to think of a good comparison for the movie. It’s not quite a complete A-list filled movie, just actors that are either on the cusp of movie star or rising stars ready to break out. The closest thing might be Looper in my mind with rising stars compared to Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Emily Blunt and the backing of an older star like Bruce Willis. With Gangster Squad sporting Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, and Sean Penn playing the role as legitimate Hollywood veteran, that’s the best comparison I could think of. Looper came out in almost 3000 screens and grossed almost 21 million with an almost 7k per screen average. I see something similar for Gangster Squad, although the movie might lose a bit of its legs because it’s getting mixed reviews. Gangster Squad opens in 3100 screens and should drum up about 6.5k per screen, so that will give it 20 million to start the weekend off.

Tougher to predict is A Haunted House. With only one Wayans brother trying to duplicate the magic of the Scary Movie franchise, it’s hard to think that this will succeed. But that might also do with the fact that the franchise was complete garbage so my initial prejudice is to completely ask this movie to bomb. However, the people always come out in force for these types of movies. The last spoof movie to come out was Vampires Suck and that grossed 12 million in 3200 theaters, which is shocking because I had no recollection of that even being in theaters to begin with. I’d like to add that I hate 90% of all spoof movies so seeing commercials for this made me want to throw up. With that, it should do something similar to Vampires Suck, which had almost 4k per screen average. A Haunted House opens on 2100 theaters so I predict a 4k per screen average for a 8.5 million opening frame. I will say that this can blow up quickly and I’m wary about under-predicting on this one. With no real competition against it, I have a feeling this will be a movie to watch closely. Despite the fact I have zero desire in seeing it.

Lastly, we have Zero Dark Thirty going wide and this should challenge for the top spot this weekend. Obviously they were relying on challenging Lincoln for the most nominees but surprisingly, they ended up with only 5, not even including a Best Director nod for Kathryn Bigelow. This should still receive a boost in the box office though as it moves to 2900 theaters nationwide. Last year, when The Artist expanded, it drew in a 39.8% increase on box office output, although it only increased by 235 theaters. Last year The Descendants increased their theaters after the nominations came out to 2000 theaters, a 1400 screen increase. That resulted in a 170% increased box office dollar result. I think that might be more in line but still only resulted in a 3k per screen average. Last weekend, in 60 theaters, Zero Dark Thirty averaged almost 45k per screen. Obviously that is way too out of line to be expected this week. So let’s go with a 8k average per screen for a final result of 23 million for the weekend.

As for the holdovers, we expect Lincoln to get a mini-boost, as well as the other Oscar-nominated pictures. Looking at Django Unchained first, that should only decline by 30% despite competition for the R-rated audiences so it’ll result in a 14 million dollar take. Les Miserables will also see a slight decline of 30% as people check out the Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway nominated movie so that will result in an 11 million dollar take. Lincoln should see a big increase probably from the previous week so look for a 9 million dollar weekend for them. Life of Pi will get a slight increase too but only to probably 4 million as the marketplace is flooded and the movie is already two months into its current run. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will continue it’s 50% decline, giving it 9 million for the weekend. Parental Guidance is also proving to be a solid hit and should decline about 40% to reach 6 million, as well as Jack Reacher which also will get about 6 million with new films in the marketplace to take from its demographic. This Is 40 will get about a 40% decline to result in a 5 million dollar frame as well. Texas Chainsaw 3D will probably get a MASSIVE decline of 70% and end with 8 million as horror movies never hold up over the long period of time. The horrific reviews don’t help either. Overall, let’s see how it all shapes out:

[box_dark]1.) Zero Dark Thirty: 23 million
2.) Gangster Squad: 20 million
3.) Django Unchained: 14 million
4.) Les Miserables: 11 million
5.) (tied) Lincoln: 9 million
5.) (tied) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: 9 million
7.) A Haunted House: 8.5 million
8.) Texas Chainsaw 3D: 8 million
9.) (tied) Parental Guidance: 6 million
9.) (tied) Jack Reacher: 6 million[/box_dark]

Those are the predictions, so we’ll see. Otherwise, it’s going to be a busy weekend for me. Time to catch up as I fill up some Oscar ballots and win me some Oscar pools!

SNL: 38.3 – Daniel Craig/Muse

Well I’m really glad that the last episode of SNL, hosted by Joseph Gordon-Levitt, was good because this week it was just awful. I don’t know that awful is even strong enough a word for how bad this episode was. Usually I make two lists; one of good sketches, and another of bad sketches. This week there was not even an entire sketch in the good category, just one name. And it certainly wasn’t Daniel Craig’s.

Obviously, the cold open had to do with the debate. It was nice to see Chris Parnell back as the ineffective Jim Lehrer, but man alive this sketch was weak. Jay Pharaoh’s Obama impression is getting better but if the material and sketches don’t improve, I’d rather have Fred Armisen back as Commander-in-Chief. The monologue was just bad. Dear writers; if the phrase “I love this song but don’t know the name, can someone Shazaam it for me?” is what passes as a good joke these days, there is a problem. The catcalling construction workers wasn’t bad. It wasn’t good, but it wasn’t bad. It was just there and what seems to be a trend this season so far, it didn’t know when to quit. The “Bond Girls” fauxmercial was okay. I did enjoy Diane Keaton and Taran Killam in bed together. There was a moment where I was  wondering how many people out there watching would remember Lea Salonga and then was really confused when they kept going back to her. I’m ashamed to admit I even wondered out loud, “has Lea Salonga even done anything on tv or been in a movie recently?” Well as a matter of fact the last tv/movie thing she did was the 25th Anniversary concert of Les Miserables in 2010. My confusion only increased.

All that said- I’m an idiot. For it wasn’t Lea Salonga they were talking about at all. Rather it was that chick from Glee, Lea Michele. Once I realized that, those parts of the sketch made a lot more sense. They weren’t any better, but they made sense at least. Another sketch about the debate in which Jason Sudeikis was hysterical as a sleep deprived Chris Matthews.  Keenan Thompson is always fun as Al Sharpton but overall the sketch was a bore.

The happy Republican girl who said nothing but how happy she was this week was amusing in her simplicity. Next up was the pre-recorded “Long Island Medium” sketch and if there was a highlight of the night, this was probably it. That’s saying a lot. Kate McKinnon played the reality tv “star” who makes a living going up to random people and telling them about their loved ones who died. I can’t say that I’ve ever seen the show so I don’t know how spot on it was, but it was funny. Bobby Moynihan as the subject of one of the medium’s not-quite-so-accurate readings was the first time I laughed.

Unfortunately Bobby went from making me laugh to making me unintentionally impersonate my dog when he cocks his head to the side and gives me that “what the hell have you been smoking woman?” look. Seriously, what on earth was up with that space station sketch? It was just awkward and weird and I’m usually a fan of awkward and weird but it was not working for me. At all. It was interesting to hear an entire audience simultaneously let out an “awwww” when Fuzz Aldrin appeared. Thank god there was a cute cat because otherwise that sketch was a goner.

Musical Guest Time! It was Muse and they were good. During the first song though I could not get past the fact the dude was playing an ipad. Seriously.

I don’t know why I was surprised, hell you can damn near perform brain surgery nowadays after watching a few YouTube videos but this guitar/bass/iPad thing he had going was just fascinating to me. If I learned nothing else on Saturday Night it was this- America still loves Big Bird. I mean, who can blame us? Follow That Bird was one of the greatest movies of its time. Put Big Bird on Weekend Update? The tv watching nation will go nuts.

Did you know that Big Bird is on twitter? Well he sort of is, he just tweets through the general Sesame Street account though. Sharing is a big thing on Sesame Street. Did you also know that Grizzly Bomb is on twitter? Of course we are!  After Weekend Update I’m pretty sure Lorne Michaels spontaneously burst into flames and the entire cast was too distracted by it to actually put forth the effort to make the rest of the show watchable.

“Sorry Lot We Are” was just horrendous. When you are making references to movies that have been dead and gone for quite some time (The Full Monty and the even more obscure, Waking Ned Divine) people are going to start to think you are phoning it in. Even more aggravating was this was the first time we got to see Aidy Bryant do more than one short line. I had started to wonder if she was even on the show anymore because we’ve seen plenty of Cecily Strong and Tim Robinson but unfortunately not much of Ms. Bryant. If “man in drag awkwardly rubbing themselves against other cast member” hadn’t been done in the last episode, it might have been better received this week. Then again, there is only so much of Fred Armisen’s crotchtal region that I want to see, so maybe not.

Apparently Fred’s crotch was the last straw because after another performance by Muse, it was a repeat of the “Undecided Voters” sketch from last week and that was all she wrote. Thank the angels and saints in heaven above. So all that was in my bad/not good column. The only thing in my good column? Kate McKinnon. She was all over this episode and even though it looked as if Vanessa McBrayer was being groomed as the next Kristin Wiig, Ms. McKinnon seems ready for that role. Despite the entire episode sucking as a whole, she had some bright moments. I’m looking forward to see her performances as the season goes on.

To sum up: episode was bad, Daniel Craig is pretty but should stay away from sketch comedy, Big Bird is a fan favorite, and I’m trying to forget this show happened and just look forward to October 13th when Christina Applegate hosts with musical guest Passion Pit.

CBS Pilot Review: Elementary

In honor of last night’s Elementary premiere, I have put together a little musical tribute. Enjoy.

Can you hear the fandoms scream?
Expressing their hatred with angry memes.
They feel that since it was done in England,
It can not be done again.
– set to the tune of “Can you hear the people sing?”

Going into the show, pretty much all you heard was “It’s not as good as the BBC version. I can’t believe John Watson is a girl. I mean really Lucy Liu is Watson? What are they thinking? Sherlock Holmes lives in London, not New York! This show is obviously going to suck. I can’t believe people will even watch this shit.”  [Editor’s Note: Yeah, that was mostly me]

Well, there were enough people that didn’t think it would suck, or were just curious because Elementary premiered to some rather good numbers. I, obviously, watched it as well, and rather enjoyed it.

Was it as good as the BBC version? Well, I don’t know that we can even compare them like that. While Sherlock is a mini-movie, Elementary is a typical procedural- we see a murder, cut to title sequence, meet the cops, find a bad guy, it’s the wrong bad guy, sit around with pensive looks, have a EUREKA! moment, find new bad guy, and of course it’s the right bad guy. [Editor’s Note: My point…] If it’s a good procedural, there is enough storyline between the main characters that keep us coming back each week. I don’t know about anyone else, but I watch NCIS more for the relationship between Gibbs’ team than the actual murders they solve.

Johnny Lee Miller is a believable incarnation of Sherlock Holmes. He’s quirky, witty, quick, and intelligent. And he’s got enough of asshole in him that makes it entertaining. He’s not intentionally an ass, as shown by his attempt to not pour salt into Watson’s wounds, but it’s there, just waiting. As he begins his post “junkie jail”/rehab life, his father has hired Liu as Joan Watson to be his sober companion. Blame it on my sheltered life, I had no idea that such a job existed. He has also decided that instead of just sitting around, he is going to return to a job he did with Scotland Yard- police consultant, this time with the NYPD. We all know what Sherlock Holmes is like, and Miller does it well.

Call me nuts, but I like Joan Watson. I don’t know that the leap from surgeon to sober companion is all that believable, but they did a good job at setting it up. I loved Sherlock’s assessment of how much she likes her job though. Can’t say I’ve ever considered the number of alarms set as an indicator of how much one likes their job, but hey, it was fun. Watching her step into the investigator role was rather ingenious. I was afraid it would be forced but it really wasn’t. And can we discuss the fact that Joan Watson is a baseball fan? I love when a woman is a baseball fan. I do want to ask her opinion on pink uniforms, I’m sure we would both agree on that topic.

If there was no other reason for me to watch this show- it would be this man. I would watch Aidan Quinn do anything. ANYTHING! I’m just hoping he has a longer stint as police captain than he did as a police lieutenant in Prime Suspect.

So- the big question is, would I watch it again? I would. Pilots are always a bit messy. They have a lot of back story to fit into a little bit of time and it makes for, at times, an awkward flow. I thought Elementary was successful in navigating those waters. The murder/investigation story vs. the relationship between Sherlock and Watson was pretty balanced. Both Miller and Liu were believable as the characters. I’m looking forward to seeing if/when Mycroft is introduced as he is one of my favorite characters. I’m the oldest child of some crazy siblings, so I can relate to his pain.  What I’m really hoping is that Sherlock will start introducing Watson by a variety of titles, a’la Sean Spencer.

Because there is potential and I’m excited to see how things develop, I’m going to give the pilot episode a 4 grizzly rating.

That wraps up this review- we’ll meet up next week and see what our favorite detective and his sober companion are up to then!

[Editor’s Note – I (Doc) am at a bit of a loss here. I have to disagree with my colleague. I thought the relationship was forced, the characters were boring, and the NYC setting was akin to moving Batman out of Gotham. 2/5 for me. They felt as natural together on-screen as they look in this picture:]

Les Misérables: Trailer and Set Photos!

As a fan of Les Misérables, I am pleased to present this news. The newest movie adaptation of this prestigious musical will be releasing in theaters this year. I have very high hopes that this star-studded cast will do their best to keep it authentic and pure of Hollywood garbage.

Les Misérables is a tale of much passion. In fact, each song from this stage musical has a story, and within each story there is a different very powerful emotion expressed. Here is the official synopsis from Collider.com:

Set against the backdrop of 19th-century France, Les Misérables tells an enthralling story of broken dreams and unrequited love, passion, sacrifice and redemption–a timeless testament to the survival of the human spirit. Jackman plays ex-prisoner Jean Valjean, hunted for decades by the ruthless policeman Javert (Crowe) after he breaks parole. When Valjean agrees to care for factory worker Fantine’s (Hathaway) young daughter, Cosette, their lives change forever.

The two characters most intriguing to me are Hugh Jackman as Jean Valjean and Anne Hathaway as Fantine. I cannot wait to see what they bring to the characters. I will say this, though… if Hathaway bastardizes ‘I Dreamed a Dream’, I will not rest until her career is halted for eternity. She sounds beautiful in the trailer, but we shall see.

Take a look at the trailer:

Les Misérables will be released on December 14, 2012.